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How do we know how many people will get the coronavirus?

2 min read
Epidemiology is a branch of medicine that includes how disease gets distributed into the population. Using models, epidemiologist and other experts can predict the spread of COVID 19. 
In a study published in the Infectious Diseases of Poverty Journal, a comprehensive infection rate was developed. Other models have looked at how the virus spreads from person to person, but this does not address the...
“Supply chain and distribution” of the virus. It also looked at those exposed versus infected. It also looked at the animal side and the human side, the incubation period, and how long the virus lives on surfaces.
The supply chain goes like this: bats in fact some other bats. These infected bats expose other types of animals, and some of these animals get infected. These infected animals go to a seafood market which creates a reservoir for the virus
Of the people who go to the seafood market, some get infected. These infected people then expose other people to the virus, some of whom get infected. Then people travel.
Bats infect animals which creates a reservoir for the virus. People get the virus from the reservoir and infect other people. The buyers may be able to live for days on surfaces such as tables, door knobs, etc.
People who are infected but don’t know it yet because they are not sick… Spread the virus.
These researchers estimated the infection rate to be 3.58 from person to person, which is how fast the disease spreads. This is higher than SARS, which the researcher’s believed to be 2.9.
The higher the rate, the more people become infected. Vaccinations and changes in behavior, such as social distancing will reduce the final number.